Dwell Protection: Georgia Senate runoff elections

We’re practically 4 hours into the counting, and all eyes are on Atlanta’s DeKalb County, the place a block of about 171,000 votes are because of be recorded any minute now. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, the 2 Republicans, have modest leads (83,000 and 115,000, respectively), however DeKalb is so intensely blue (normally over 80-20 for Democrats) that this set of votes alone may put Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff into the lead.

We simply received a reasonably important drop out of Cobb County, and it was fairly good for Democrats. Consequently, the Republican leads dropped to 66K votes (Loeffler) and 98K votes (Perdue). And that’s with out the 171,000 votes pending from DeKalb.

File this within the “ugh” file: Chatham County (Savannah) has introduced that they’re completed for the night time. They nonetheless have hundreds of votes to rely. It’s important to hope these votes merely don’t matter besides to pad the chief’s margin.

At current, with a little bit of a lull within the rely, let’s take inventory of what stays.

The excellent news for the Republicans is that they presently have the leads. Kelly Loeffler is presently up 82,100 votes, whereas David Perdue has, as he has all night, a much bigger edge at 115,300 votes.

The unhealthy information? They’re cashed out. There are principally two counties left in the entire state which might be pink counties and have any appreciable vote left. Bartow County might have about 25-30K remaining, and Espresso County might have about 8-10K nonetheless excellent.

So why are Democrats nonetheless optimistic? As a result of they nonetheless have a minimum of 171,000 votes left in certainly one of their finest giant counties: DeKalb. It is extremely potential the Democrats may pull 100-120K out of simply DeKalb, and there could also be extra votes to rely by mail. In the meantime, Fulton County (Atlanta) in all probability has one other 20-40K left to rely, and Henry County may need one other 10-20K votes. In different phrases, there’s a ton nonetheless on the market on blue turf.

And there goes DeKalb. Notably, not all of it (about 160K), however a big chunk. And that alone pulled Jon Ossoff to only a 3100 vote drawback towards David Perdue, and it pulled Raphael Warnock right into a 32,000 vote lead over Kelly Loeffler.

Should you simply seen that David Perdue’s lead expanded out to 16,000 votes, and Kelly Loeffler moved inside 20,000 votes of Raphael Warnock, that’s really first rate information for the Democrats.

That was the final vote drop of any consequence for the GOP lastly hitting the boards: Bartow County. A GOP +50 county, and it’s now within the books. The Republicans netted fairly a bit, however nearly actually not sufficient.

By our tough estimates, there are in all probability about 20-30K left to rely in DeKalb, in all probability the identical in Fulton and Cobb, plus one other 20K or so in Henry and Chatham. All blue counties.

At this level, it’d be stunning for Ossoff to not reclaim the lead, given how blue DeKalb and Fulton each are.